Leicester stunned the world in 2016 when they won the Premier League – but could Nottingham Forest be about to do the same?
Third in the Premier League with the joint second-best defence in the division and the most clean sheets, this rejuvenated club are no longer the surprise package.
Victory against Liverpool on Tuesday would equal their club record of seven straight top-flight wins, set in 1922 – and, if they are able to complete the double over the Premier League leaders, they will be just three points behind them.
This all comes after last season’s battles. They survived on the final day, finishing 17th, having incurred a four-point deduction for breaching profit and sustainability rules.
A controversial social media post, refereeing rows, VAR complaints and a managerial change all contributed to a turbulent season.
Arguably – and in August some at the City Ground agreed – Forest needed a season of anonymity. A fuss-free campaign would have represented progress on and off the pitch.
However, under December’s manager of the month Nuno Espirito Santo they have outstripped expectation in spectacular style.
On the 70 occasions that teams have earned 40 points or more from their first 20 games in a Premier League campaign, only four sides have failed to finish inside the top four at the end of the season.
Since 2000, the average points needed to win the Premier League has been 89.2, with 81.6 for second, 74.5 for third, 69.5 for fourth and 65.6 for fifth.
Despite that, Opta’s predictions model still gives Forest 0% chance of winning the title and only 0.7% of finishing second, which contrasts with the confidence within the squad.
“We are in this fight for the title because we deserve to be,” says Forest defender Morato.
Liverpool boss Arne Slot agrees, saying on Monday that Forest “definitely are a team that is in competition with us and with the other teams” at the top.
Forest are matching Leicester’s points tally
The comparisons to East Midlands rivals Leicester are unavoidable.
The Foxes’ 5,000-1 title win in 2016 was one of sport’s greatest achievements, with Leicester having initially been one of the favourites for relegation after pulling off a great escape in the season before.
Claudio Ranieri’s side won the league by 10 points and lost just three games. They were on 40 points after 20 games in 2015-16, the same total as Forest have now.
Leicester’s success was built on Jamie Vardy’s pace, the threat of Riyad Mahrez and Marc Albrighton on the flanks and the energy of N’Golo Kante in midfield.
Wes Morgan skippered them to the title having joined from Forest in 2012 after a 10-year career at the City Ground.
“The last few games, when it’s in touching distance, things get a bit twitchy, and you start thinking, ‘Right, we cannot slip up’,” said Morgan.
“Whereas before it was ‘there’s nothing to lose, we’re doing great. Let’s just keep going.'”
Defender Morgan made 323 appearances for the Foxes and also won the FA Cup in 2021.
Explaining the process of chasing the title, Morgan said: “When you’re so close to that goal, to achieving something no-one thought would be possible, you start off taking things a bit more… I don’t want to say seriously because we always take it seriously, but there’s a lot more emphasis in making sure we do things right.”
Forest have the Vardy-like focal point of 12-goal Chris Wood, with Callum Hudson-Odoi and Anthony Elanga out wide and Morgan Gibbs-White joined by Elliot Anderson in midfield.
‘The best counter-attacking team in the league?’
Forest have been described as the Premier League’s best counter-attackers, but the statistics say otherwise.
Their 33 fast breaks have culminated in 29 shots but just four goals. It is a surprisingly low number considering how dangerous Forest have been.
Tottenham have scored the most breakaway goals – 10 – while Chelsea, Liverpool and Wolves have all scored more than Forest.
Elanga has three goals in his past five games – but they were his first since last February. He has four assists, too, while Hudson-Odoi has two goals and two assists. There is little doubt there needs to be more end product from both.
Forest have a conversion rate of 31.9% for their big chances, scoring 15 of their 47. Elanga and Hudson-Odoi have created six such chances between them, the same number as Morgan Gibbs-White.
Their possession is also the lowest in the Premier League at 39.4% and only the bottom five of Everton, Ipswich, Leicester, Wolves and Southampton have a worse xG – their expected goals tally – than Forest’s 25.9.
Nuno’s side have made just 929 passes into the final third, with only Southampton [887] and Ipswich [925] managing fewer. Arsenal top that chart with 3,192.
The numbers suggest Forest are defying data trends, but they are ruthless and effective, while Nuno has also praised their spirit.
After beating Burnley to seal survival on the final day last season, Nuno told the squad one of the reasons they had stayed up was because of their characters, calling them good guys.
He likes to work with a small squad, allowing everyone to feel they have a chance of making the team, which also fosters a togetherness.
“It’s not yet good enough,” he said, joking about the spirit last week. “It means a lot to the squad; when they have special moments everyone sees how happy they are.”
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